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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199911-200001

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
2
0
14
0
0
0
0
0
7
1
8
12
9
1
22

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
2
0
14
30
9
1
40
0
7
1
8
42
18
2
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
55
9
0
64
0
0
0
0
0
32
5
36
55
41
5
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
3
0
23
48
15
2
65
0
11
2
13
68
29
3
100

hitrate: 0.591 hitrate: 0.355
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.17 0.00 8.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 2.22 4.00
Heidke skill score: 0.386 Heidke skill score: 0.032
true Heidke skill score: 0.357 true Heidke skill score: 0.016
Kuipers skill score: 0.386 Kuipers skill score: 0.032
true Kuipers skill score: 0.426 true Kuipers skill score: 0.023
threat score:
0.857 0.000 0.125
threat score:
0.273 0.184 0.111
equitable threat score:
0.686 0.000 0.083
equitable threat score:
0.073 -0.070 0.085
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.286 0.500 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.143 0.000 0.875
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.143 0.775 0.875
samples: 22 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 35.48 %coverage: 100.00