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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199911-200001

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
2
0
9
0
0
0
0
2
8
1
11
9
10
1
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
2
0
9
33
8
1
42
2
8
1
11
42
18
2
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
35
10
0
45
0
0
0
0
10
40
5
55
45
50
5
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
3
0
15
53
13
2
68
3
13
2
18
68
29
3
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.258
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 11.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.21 2.33 5.50
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: -0.113
true Heidke skill score: 0.221 true Heidke skill score: -0.061
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: -0.113
true Kuipers skill score: 0.312 true Kuipers skill score: -0.094
threat score:
0.636 0.000 0.091
threat score:
0.159 0.154 0.083
equitable threat score:
0.424 0.000 0.043
equitable threat score:
0.024 -0.105 0.055
probability of detection:
0.778 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.167 0.444 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.222 0.000 0.909
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.222 0.810 0.909
samples: 20 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 32.26 %coverage: 100.00