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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199911-200001

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
1
8
0
9
3
8
0
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
39
10
2
51
1
8
0
9
42
18
2
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
18
0
0
18
0
0
0
0
9
73
0
82
27
73
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
63
16
3
82
2
13
0
15
68
29
3
100

hitrate: 0.182 hitrate: 0.194
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 2.83 4.50
Heidke skill score: -0.227 Heidke skill score: -0.210
true Heidke skill score: 0.139 true Heidke skill score: -0.098
Kuipers skill score: -0.227 Kuipers skill score: -0.210
true Kuipers skill score: 0.333 true Kuipers skill score: -0.158
threat score:
0.667 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.048 0.169 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.593 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.016 -0.109 -0.027
probability of detection:
0.667 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.048 0.556 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.804 1.000
samples: 11 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 17.74 %coverage: 100.00