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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199911-200001

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
1
0
5
0
0
0
0
4
7
2
13
8
8
2
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
1
0
5
34
10
0
44
4
7
2
13
42
18
2
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
22
6
0
28
0
0
0
0
22
39
11
72
44
44
11
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
2
0
8
55
16
0
71
6
11
3
21
68
29
3
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.258
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.62 0.00 6.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 2.44 6.50
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.113
true Heidke skill score: 0.163 true Heidke skill score: -0.013
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.113
true Kuipers skill score: 0.219 true Kuipers skill score: -0.021
threat score:
0.444 0.000 0.154
threat score:
0.093 0.192 0.154
equitable threat score:
0.262 0.000 0.048
equitable threat score:
0.015 -0.071 0.126
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.095 0.556 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.200 0.000 0.846
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.200 0.773 0.846
samples: 18 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 29.03 %coverage: 100.00