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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199911-200001

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
6
1
10
0
0
0
0
4
1
0
5
7
7
1
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
6
1
10
35
11
1
47
4
1
0
5
42
18
2
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
40
7
67
0
0
0
0
27
7
0
33
47
47
7
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
10
2
16
56
18
2
76
6
2
0
8
68
29
3
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.226
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.43 0.00 5.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.24 2.61 2.50
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.161
true Heidke skill score: -0.200 true Heidke skill score: -0.159
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.161
true Kuipers skill score: -0.238 true Kuipers skill score: -0.233
threat score:
0.214 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.061 0.204 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.179 0.000 -0.059
equitable threat score:
-0.089 -0.066 -0.024
probability of detection:
0.429 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.071 0.611 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.700 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.700 0.766 1.000
samples: 15 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 24.19 %coverage: 100.00