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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199911-200001

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
1
5
2
2
1
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
40
16
1
57
2
2
1
5
42
18
2
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
40
40
20
100
40
40
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
65
26
2
92
3
3
2
8
68
29
3
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.274
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 5.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.17 2.50
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.089
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.006
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.089
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.010
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.200
threat score:
0.000 0.271 0.167
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.013 0.144
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.889 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.719 0.800
samples: 5 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 8.06 %coverage: 100.00