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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199912-200002

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
3
2
17
0
0
0
0
8
12
4
24
20
15
6
41

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
3
2
17
10
7
5
22
8
12
4
24
30
22
11
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
29
7
5
41
0
0
0
0
20
29
10
59
49
37
15
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
5
3
27
16
11
8
35
13
19
6
38
48
35
17
100

hitrate: 0.390 hitrate: 0.365
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.85 0.00 4.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.57 1.00 2.18
Heidke skill score: 0.085 Heidke skill score: 0.048
true Heidke skill score: 0.144 true Heidke skill score: 0.070
Kuipers skill score: 0.085 Kuipers skill score: 0.048
true Kuipers skill score: 0.169 true Kuipers skill score: 0.078
threat score:
0.480 0.000 0.154
threat score:
0.343 0.189 0.129
equitable threat score:
0.222 0.000 0.022
equitable threat score:
0.145 -0.023 -0.007
probability of detection:
0.600 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.400 0.318 0.364
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.294 0.000 0.833
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.294 0.682 0.833
samples: 41 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 65.08 %coverage: 100.00