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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199912-200002

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
13
2
1
16
0
0
0
0
6
11
4
21
19
13
5
37

contingency table
fcst
obs
13
2
1
16
11
8
6
25
6
11
4
21
30
21
11
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
35
5
3
43
0
0
0
0
16
30
11
57
51
35
14
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
21
3
2
26
18
13
10
40
10
18
6
34
48
34
18
100

hitrate: 0.459 hitrate: 0.403
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.84 0.00 4.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.53 1.19 1.91
Heidke skill score: 0.189 Heidke skill score: 0.105
true Heidke skill score: 0.229 true Heidke skill score: 0.120
Kuipers skill score: 0.189 Kuipers skill score: 0.105
true Kuipers skill score: 0.270 true Kuipers skill score: 0.132
threat score:
0.591 0.000 0.182
threat score:
0.394 0.211 0.143
equitable threat score:
0.347 0.000 0.061
equitable threat score:
0.208 -0.016 0.011
probability of detection:
0.684 0.000 0.800
probability of detection:
0.433 0.381 0.364
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.188 0.000 0.810
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.188 0.680 0.810
samples: 37 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 59.68 %coverage: 100.00