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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199912-200002

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
0
0
8
0
0
0
0
4
8
6
18
12
8
6
26

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
0
0
8
18
13
5
36
4
8
6
18
30
21
11
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
31
0
0
31
0
0
0
0
15
31
23
69
46
31
23
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
0
0
13
29
21
8
58
6
13
10
29
48
34
18
100

hitrate: 0.538 hitrate: 0.435
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 0.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.27 1.71 1.64
Heidke skill score: 0.308 Heidke skill score: 0.153
true Heidke skill score: 0.339 true Heidke skill score: 0.181
Kuipers skill score: 0.308 Kuipers skill score: 0.153
true Kuipers skill score: 0.370 true Kuipers skill score: 0.202
threat score:
0.667 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.267 0.295 0.261
equitable threat score:
0.519 0.000 0.133
equitable threat score:
0.158 0.025 0.142
probability of detection:
0.667 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.267 0.619 0.545
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.639 0.667
samples: 26 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 41.94 %coverage: 100.00