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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199912-200002

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
3
0
13
0
0
0
0
1
9
3
13
11
12
3
26

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
3
0
13
19
9
8
36
1
9
3
13
30
21
11
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
38
12
0
50
0
0
0
0
4
35
12
50
42
46
12
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
5
0
21
31
15
13
58
2
15
5
21
48
34
18
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.355
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.18 0.00 4.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.43 1.71 1.18
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.032
true Heidke skill score: 0.316 true Heidke skill score: 0.029
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.032
true Kuipers skill score: 0.388 true Kuipers skill score: 0.031
threat score:
0.714 0.000 0.231
threat score:
0.303 0.188 0.143
equitable threat score:
0.529 0.000 0.130
equitable threat score:
0.139 -0.089 0.037
probability of detection:
0.909 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.333 0.429 0.273
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.231 0.000 0.769
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.231 0.750 0.769
samples: 26 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 41.94 %coverage: 100.00