CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199912-200002

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
14
7
1
22
0
0
0
0
1
6
3
10
15
13
4
32

contingency table
fcst
obs
14
7
1
22
15
8
7
30
1
6
3
10
30
21
11
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
44
22
3
69
0
0
0
0
3
19
9
31
47
41
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
23
11
2
35
24
13
11
48
2
10
5
16
48
34
18
100

hitrate: 0.531 hitrate: 0.403
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.47 0.00 2.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.73 1.43 0.91
Heidke skill score: 0.297 Heidke skill score: 0.105
true Heidke skill score: 0.266 true Heidke skill score: 0.061
Kuipers skill score: 0.297 Kuipers skill score: 0.105
true Kuipers skill score: 0.283 true Kuipers skill score: 0.063
threat score:
0.609 0.000 0.273
threat score:
0.368 0.186 0.167
equitable threat score:
0.291 0.000 0.179
equitable threat score:
0.123 -0.066 0.076
probability of detection:
0.933 0.000 0.750
probability of detection:
0.467 0.381 0.273
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.364 0.000 0.700
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.364 0.733 0.700
samples: 32 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 51.61 %coverage: 100.00