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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199912-200002

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
1
4
2
7
4
4
2
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
26
17
9
52
1
4
2
7
30
21
11
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
30
0
0
30
0
0
0
0
10
40
20
70
40
40
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
0
5
42
27
15
84
2
6
3
11
48
34
18
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.355
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.75 0.00 3.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 2.48 0.64
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.032
true Heidke skill score: 0.324 true Heidke skill score: 0.041
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.032
true Kuipers skill score: 0.375 true Kuipers skill score: 0.044
threat score:
0.750 0.000 0.286
threat score:
0.100 0.304 0.125
equitable threat score:
0.643 0.000 0.107
equitable threat score:
0.054 -0.016 0.051
probability of detection:
0.750 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.100 0.810 0.182
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.714
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.673 0.714
samples: 10 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 16.13 %coverage: 100.00