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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199912-200002

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
1
4
3
8
3
4
3
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
27
17
8
52
1
4
3
8
30
21
11
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
0
0
20
0
0
0
0
10
40
30
80
30
40
30
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
44
27
13
84
2
6
5
13
48
34
18
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.355
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 0.00 2.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.07 2.48 0.73
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.032
true Heidke skill score: 0.286 true Heidke skill score: 0.048
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.032
true Kuipers skill score: 0.303 true Kuipers skill score: 0.052
threat score:
0.667 0.000 0.375
threat score:
0.067 0.304 0.188
equitable threat score:
0.583 0.000 0.107
equitable threat score:
0.036 -0.016 0.108
probability of detection:
0.667 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.067 0.810 0.273
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.625
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.673 0.625
samples: 10 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 16.13 %coverage: 100.00