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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199912-200002

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
0
6
0
0
0
0
1
4
3
8
5
6
3
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
0
6
25
15
8
48
1
4
3
8
30
21
11
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
29
14
0
43
0
0
0
0
7
29
21
57
36
43
21
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
3
0
10
40
24
13
77
2
6
5
13
48
34
18
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.355
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.20 0.00 2.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.20 2.29 0.73
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.032
true Heidke skill score: 0.310 true Heidke skill score: 0.034
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.032
true Kuipers skill score: 0.349 true Kuipers skill score: 0.037
threat score:
0.571 0.000 0.375
threat score:
0.125 0.278 0.188
equitable threat score:
0.382 0.000 0.205
equitable threat score:
0.038 -0.033 0.108
probability of detection:
0.800 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.133 0.714 0.273
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.000 0.625
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.688 0.625
samples: 14 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 22.58 %coverage: 100.00