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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199912-200002

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
3
6
0
0
0
0
5
1
0
6
6
3
3
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
3
6
24
18
8
50
5
1
0
6
30
21
11
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
17
25
50
0
0
0
0
42
8
0
50
50
25
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
5
10
39
29
13
81
8
2
0
10
48
34
18
100

hitrate: 0.083 hitrate: 0.306
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.20 2.38 0.55
Heidke skill score: -0.375 Heidke skill score: -0.040
true Heidke skill score: -0.467 true Heidke skill score: -0.046
Kuipers skill score: -0.375 Kuipers skill score: -0.040
true Kuipers skill score: -0.467 true Kuipers skill score: -0.050
threat score:
0.091 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.029 0.340 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.250 0.000 -0.200
equitable threat score:
-0.059 0.030 -0.067
probability of detection:
0.167 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.033 0.857 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.640 1.000
samples: 12 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 19.35 %coverage: 100.00