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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200001-200003

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
7
5
18
0
0
0
0
11
9
4
24
17
16
9
42

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
7
5
18
7
4
10
21
11
9
4
24
24
20
19
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
17
12
43
0
0
0
0
26
21
10
57
40
38
21
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
11
8
29
11
6
16
33
17
14
6
38
38
32
30
100

hitrate: 0.238 hitrate: 0.222
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.06 0.00 2.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.75 1.05 1.26
Heidke skill score: -0.143 Heidke skill score: -0.167
true Heidke skill score: -0.082 true Heidke skill score: -0.160
Kuipers skill score: -0.143 Kuipers skill score: -0.167
true Kuipers skill score: -0.090 true Kuipers skill score: -0.162
threat score:
0.207 0.000 0.138
threat score:
0.167 0.108 0.103
equitable threat score:
-0.059 0.000 -0.048
equitable threat score:
-0.029 -0.088 -0.102
probability of detection:
0.353 0.000 0.444
probability of detection:
0.250 0.200 0.211
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.000 0.833
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.810 0.833
samples: 42 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 66.67 %coverage: 100.00