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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200001-200003

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
7
8
24
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2
10
8
8
26

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
7
8
24
15
13
11
39
1
1
0
2
25
21
19
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
35
27
31
92
0
0
0
0
4
4
0
8
38
31
31
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
11
12
37
23
20
17
60
2
2
0
3
38
32
29
100

hitrate: 0.346 hitrate: 0.338
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.40 0.00 0.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.96 1.86 0.11
Heidke skill score: 0.019 Heidke skill score: 0.008
true Heidke skill score: -0.052 true Heidke skill score: -0.010
Kuipers skill score: 0.019 Kuipers skill score: 0.008
true Kuipers skill score: -0.049 true Kuipers skill score: -0.010
threat score:
0.360 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.225 0.277 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.015 0.000 -0.066
equitable threat score:
-0.007 0.012 -0.029
probability of detection:
0.900 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.360 0.619 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.625 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.625 0.667 1.000
samples: 26 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 40.00 %coverage: 100.00