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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200001-200003

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
4
3
12
0
0
0
0
9
7
3
19
14
11
6
31

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
4
3
12
10
9
13
32
9
7
3
19
24
20
19
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
13
10
39
0
0
0
0
29
23
10
61
45
35
19
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
6
5
19
16
14
21
51
14
11
5
30
38
32
30
100

hitrate: 0.258 hitrate: 0.270
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.86 0.00 3.17
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 1.60 1.00
Heidke skill score: -0.113 Heidke skill score: -0.095
true Heidke skill score: -0.050 true Heidke skill score: -0.081
Kuipers skill score: -0.113 Kuipers skill score: -0.095
true Kuipers skill score: -0.056 true Kuipers skill score: -0.083
threat score:
0.238 0.000 0.136
threat score:
0.161 0.209 0.086
equitable threat score:
-0.027 0.000 -0.037
equitable threat score:
0.016 -0.035 -0.093
probability of detection:
0.357 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.208 0.450 0.158
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.583 0.000 0.842
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.583 0.719 0.842
samples: 31 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 49.21 %coverage: 100.00