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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200001-200003

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
3
2
10
0
0
0
0
7
6
4
17
12
9
6
27

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
3
2
10
12
11
13
36
7
6
4
17
24
20
19
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
11
7
37
0
0
0
0
26
22
15
63
44
33
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
5
3
16
19
17
21
57
11
10
6
27
38
32
30
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.317
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.83 0.00 2.83
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.42 1.80 0.89
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.024
true Heidke skill score: 0.041 true Heidke skill score: -0.009
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.024
true Kuipers skill score: 0.045 true Kuipers skill score: -0.009
threat score:
0.294 0.000 0.211
threat score:
0.172 0.244 0.125
equitable threat score:
0.044 0.000 0.015
equitable threat score:
0.047 -0.013 -0.042
probability of detection:
0.417 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.208 0.550 0.211
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.765
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.694 0.765
samples: 27 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 42.86 %coverage: 100.00