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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200001-200003

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
6
5
16
0
0
0
0
1
2
4
7
6
8
9
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
6
5
16
18
12
10
40
1
2
4
7
24
20
19
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
22
26
22
70
0
0
0
0
4
9
17
30
26
35
39
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
10
8
25
29
19
16
63
2
3
6
11
38
32
30
100

hitrate: 0.391 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.67 0.00 0.78
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 2.00 0.37
Heidke skill score: 0.087 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: 0.130 true Heidke skill score: 0.002
Kuipers skill score: 0.087 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: 0.138 true Kuipers skill score: 0.002
threat score:
0.294 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.143 0.250 0.182
equitable threat score:
0.064 0.000 0.136
equitable threat score:
-0.038 -0.020 0.095
probability of detection:
0.833 0.000 0.444
probability of detection:
0.208 0.600 0.211
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.688 0.000 0.429
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.688 0.700 0.429
samples: 23 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 36.51 %coverage: 100.00