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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200001-200003

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
6
6
16
0
0
0
0
3
2
3
8
7
8
9
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
6
6
16
17
12
10
39
3
2
3
8
24
20
19
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
25
25
67
0
0
0
0
13
8
13
33
29
33
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
10
10
25
27
19
16
62
5
3
5
13
38
32
30
100

hitrate: 0.292 hitrate: 0.302
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.29 0.00 0.89
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 1.95 0.42
Heidke skill score: -0.063 Heidke skill score: -0.048
true Heidke skill score: -0.041 true Heidke skill score: -0.045
Kuipers skill score: -0.063 Kuipers skill score: -0.048
true Kuipers skill score: -0.042 true Kuipers skill score: -0.045
threat score:
0.211 0.000 0.214
threat score:
0.111 0.255 0.125
equitable threat score:
-0.047 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.070 -0.011 0.027
probability of detection:
0.571 0.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.167 0.600 0.158
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.000 0.625
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.692 0.625
samples: 24 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 38.10 %coverage: 100.00