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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200001-200003

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 11.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
0
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
2
0
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
0
6
20
18
19
57
0
0
0
0
24
20
19
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
67
33
0
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
67
33
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
3
0
10
32
29
30
90
0
0
0
0
38
32
30
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.349
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 2.85 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.024
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.038
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.024
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.039
threat score:
0.667 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.154 0.305 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.072 -0.002 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.167 0.900 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.684 0.000
samples: 6 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 9.52 %coverage: 100.00