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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200002-200004

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
4
10
22
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
2
9
4
11
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
4
10
22
12
15
12
39
1
0
1
2
21
19
23
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
17
42
92
0
0
0
0
4
0
4
8
38
17
46
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
6
16
35
19
24
19
62
2
0
2
3
33
30
37
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.381
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.44 0.00 0.18
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.05 2.05 0.09
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: 0.071
true Heidke skill score: -0.011 true Heidke skill score: 0.097
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: 0.071
true Kuipers skill score: -0.011 true Kuipers skill score: 0.100
threat score:
0.348 0.000 0.083
threat score:
0.229 0.349 0.042
equitable threat score:
-0.017 0.000 0.008
equitable threat score:
0.024 0.104 0.012
probability of detection:
0.889 0.000 0.091
probability of detection:
0.381 0.789 0.043
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.636 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.636 0.615 0.500
samples: 24 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 38.10 %coverage: 100.00