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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200002-200004

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
4
10
23
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
2
10
4
11
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
4
10
23
11
15
12
38
1
0
1
2
21
19
23
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
36
16
40
92
0
0
0
0
4
0
4
8
40
16
44
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
6
16
37
17
24
19
60
2
0
2
3
33
30
37
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.397
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.30 0.00 0.18
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.10 2.00 0.09
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.095
true Heidke skill score: -0.005 true Heidke skill score: 0.119
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.095
true Kuipers skill score: -0.005 true Kuipers skill score: 0.123
threat score:
0.375 0.000 0.083
threat score:
0.257 0.357 0.042
equitable threat score:
-0.014 0.000 0.011
equitable threat score:
0.049 0.116 0.012
probability of detection:
0.900 0.000 0.091
probability of detection:
0.429 0.789 0.043
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.609 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.609 0.605 0.500
samples: 25 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 39.68 %coverage: 100.00