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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200002-200004

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
5
11
24
0
0
0
0
1
3
1
5
9
8
12
29

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
5
11
24
12
11
11
34
1
3
1
5
21
19
23
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
28
17
38
83
0
0
0
0
3
10
3
17
31
28
41
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
8
17
38
19
17
17
54
2
5
2
8
33
30
37
100

hitrate: 0.310 hitrate: 0.317
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.67 0.00 0.42
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.14 1.79 0.22
Heidke skill score: -0.034 Heidke skill score: -0.024
true Heidke skill score: -0.027 true Heidke skill score: -0.002
Kuipers skill score: -0.034 Kuipers skill score: -0.024
true Kuipers skill score: -0.027 true Kuipers skill score: -0.002
threat score:
0.320 0.000 0.062
threat score:
0.216 0.262 0.037
equitable threat score:
0.031 0.000 -0.077
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.023 -0.033
probability of detection:
0.889 0.000 0.083
probability of detection:
0.381 0.579 0.043
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.000 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.676 0.800
samples: 29 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 46.03 %coverage: 100.00