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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200003-200005

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
9
4
25
0
0
0
0
0
2
3
5
12
11
7
30

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
9
4
25
8
17
9
34
0
2
3
5
20
28
16
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
40
30
13
83
0
0
0
0
0
7
10
17
40
37
23
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
14
6
39
13
27
14
53
0
3
5
8
31
44
25
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.500
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.08 0.00 0.71
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.25 1.21 0.31
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.250
true Heidke skill score: 0.204 true Heidke skill score: 0.201
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.250
true Kuipers skill score: 0.196 true Kuipers skill score: 0.194
threat score:
0.480 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.364 0.378 0.167
equitable threat score:
0.133 0.000 0.234
equitable threat score:
0.166 0.071 0.104
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.429
probability of detection:
0.600 0.607 0.188
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.520 0.000 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.520 0.500 0.400
samples: 30 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 46.88 %coverage: 100.00