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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200003-200005

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
8
4
24
0
0
0
0
0
2
3
5
12
10
7
29

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
8
4
24
8
18
9
35
0
2
3
5
20
28
16
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
41
28
14
83
0
0
0
0
0
7
10
17
41
34
24
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
13
6
38
13
28
14
55
0
3
5
8
31
44
25
100

hitrate: 0.517 hitrate: 0.516
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.00 0.71
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.20 1.25 0.31
Heidke skill score: 0.276 Heidke skill score: 0.273
true Heidke skill score: 0.216 true Heidke skill score: 0.224
Kuipers skill score: 0.276 Kuipers skill score: 0.273
true Kuipers skill score: 0.204 true Kuipers skill score: 0.215
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.375 0.400 0.167
equitable threat score:
0.147 0.000 0.230
equitable threat score:
0.184 0.091 0.104
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.429
probability of detection:
0.600 0.643 0.188
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.486 0.400
samples: 29 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 45.31 %coverage: 100.00