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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200003-200005

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
7
4
18
0
0
0
0
1
6
4
11
8
13
8
29

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
7
4
18
12
15
8
35
1
6
4
11
20
28
16
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
24
24
14
62
0
0
0
0
3
21
14
38
28
45
28
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
11
6
28
19
23
13
55
2
9
6
17
31
44
25
100

hitrate: 0.379 hitrate: 0.406
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.25 0.00 1.38
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.90 1.25 0.69
Heidke skill score: 0.069 Heidke skill score: 0.109
true Heidke skill score: 0.143 true Heidke skill score: 0.057
Kuipers skill score: 0.069 Kuipers skill score: 0.109
true Kuipers skill score: 0.160 true Kuipers skill score: 0.056
threat score:
0.368 0.000 0.267
threat score:
0.226 0.312 0.174
equitable threat score:
0.145 0.000 0.081
equitable threat score:
0.054 -0.010 0.062
probability of detection:
0.875 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.350 0.536 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.611 0.000 0.636
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.611 0.571 0.636
samples: 29 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 45.31 %coverage: 100.00