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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200004-200006

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
20
15
10
45
0
0
0
0
2
1
4
7
22
16
14
52

contingency table
fcst
obs
20
15
10
45
10
12
34
56
2
1
4
7
32
28
48
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
38
29
19
87
0
0
0
0
4
2
8
13
42
31
27
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
14
9
42
9
11
31
52
2
1
4
6
30
26
44
100

hitrate: 0.462 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.05 0.00 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.41 2.00 0.15
Heidke skill score: 0.192 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: 0.099 true Heidke skill score: 0.065
Kuipers skill score: 0.192 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: 0.090 true Kuipers skill score: 0.072
threat score:
0.426 0.000 0.235
threat score:
0.351 0.167 0.078
equitable threat score:
0.034 0.000 0.140
equitable threat score:
0.153 -0.044 0.019
probability of detection:
0.909 0.000 0.286
probability of detection:
0.625 0.429 0.083
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.556 0.000 0.429
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.556 0.786 0.429
samples: 52 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 48.15 %coverage: 100.00