CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 200004-200006

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
7
2
16
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
4
7
8
5
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
7
2
16
25
20
43
88
0
1
3
4
32
28
48
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
35
35
10
80
0
0
0
0
0
5
15
20
35
40
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
6
2
15
23
19
40
81
0
1
3
4
30
26
44
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.278
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.29 0.00 0.80
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 3.14 0.08
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.083
true Heidke skill score: 0.254 true Heidke skill score: 0.008
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.083
true Kuipers skill score: 0.260 true Kuipers skill score: 0.010
threat score:
0.438 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.171 0.208 0.061
equitable threat score:
0.135 0.000 0.400
equitable threat score:
0.062 -0.038 0.026
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.600
probability of detection:
0.219 0.714 0.062
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.562 0.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.562 0.773 0.250
samples: 20 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 18.52 %coverage: 100.00