CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 200004-200006

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
4
0
1
3
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
32
27
45
104
0
1
3
4
32
28
48
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
75
100
0
25
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
25
42
96
0
1
3
4
30
26
44
100

hitrate: 0.750 hitrate: 0.278
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.71 0.08
Heidke skill score: 0.625 Heidke skill score: -0.083
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.016
Kuipers skill score: 0.625 Kuipers skill score: -0.083
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.018
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.750
threat score:
0.000 0.257 0.061
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.026
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.964 0.062
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.740 0.250
samples: 4 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 3.70 %coverage: 100.00