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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200004-200006

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
4
1
1
2
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
19
16
25
60
1
1
2
4
20
17
27
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
25
50
100
25
25
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
25
39
94
2
2
3
6
31
27
42
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.281
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.53 0.15
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.078
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.008
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.078
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.009
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.262 0.069
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.001 0.011
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.941 0.074
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.733 0.500
samples: 4 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 6.25 %coverage: 100.00