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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200005-200007

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
11
10
31
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
4
10
11
14
35

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
11
10
31
14
6
9
29
0
0
4
4
24
17
23
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
29
31
29
89
0
0
0
0
0
0
11
11
29
31
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
17
16
48
22
9
14
45
0
0
6
6
38
27
36
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.312
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.10 0.00 0.29
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.29 1.71 0.17
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: -0.031
true Heidke skill score: 0.144 true Heidke skill score: -0.018
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: -0.031
true Kuipers skill score: 0.153 true Kuipers skill score: -0.018
threat score:
0.323 0.000 0.286
threat score:
0.222 0.150 0.174
equitable threat score:
0.052 0.000 0.194
equitable threat score:
-0.049 -0.053 0.119
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.286
probability of detection:
0.417 0.353 0.174
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.677 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.677 0.793 0.000
samples: 35 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 54.69 %coverage: 100.00