CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 200005-200007

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
13
14
9
36
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
13
14
12
39

contingency table
fcst
obs
13
14
9
36
11
3
11
25
0
0
3
3
24
17
23
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
36
23
92
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
8
33
36
31
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
22
14
56
17
5
17
39
0
0
5
5
38
27
36
100

hitrate: 0.410 hitrate: 0.297
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.77 0.00 0.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 1.47 0.13
Heidke skill score: 0.115 Heidke skill score: -0.055
true Heidke skill score: 0.118 true Heidke skill score: -0.052
Kuipers skill score: 0.115 Kuipers skill score: -0.055
true Kuipers skill score: 0.119 true Kuipers skill score: -0.053
threat score:
0.361 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.277 0.077 0.130
equitable threat score:
0.042 0.000 0.188
equitable threat score:
-0.015 -0.113 0.088
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.250
probability of detection:
0.542 0.176 0.130
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.639 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.639 0.880 0.000
samples: 39 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 60.94 %coverage: 100.00