CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 200009-200011

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
9
5
18
0
0
0
0
0
4
4
8
4
13
9
26

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
9
5
18
5
21
12
38
0
4
4
8
9
34
21
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
35
19
69
0
0
0
0
0
15
15
31
15
50
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
14
8
28
8
33
19
59
0
6
6
13
14
53
33
100

hitrate: 0.308 hitrate: 0.453
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.50 0.00 0.89
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 1.12 0.38
Heidke skill score: -0.038 Heidke skill score: 0.180
true Heidke skill score: 0.120 true Heidke skill score: 0.095
Kuipers skill score: -0.038 Kuipers skill score: 0.180
true Kuipers skill score: 0.156 true Kuipers skill score: 0.097
threat score:
0.222 0.000 0.308
threat score:
0.174 0.412 0.160
equitable threat score:
0.081 0.000 0.120
equitable threat score:
0.072 0.026 0.061
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.444
probability of detection:
0.444 0.618 0.190
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.778 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.778 0.447 0.500
samples: 26 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 40.62 %coverage: 100.00