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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200010-200012

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
5
2
13
0
0
0
0
2
5
9
16
8
10
11
29

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
5
2
13
15
10
10
35
2
5
9
16
23
20
21
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
21
17
7
45
0
0
0
0
7
17
31
55
28
34
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
8
3
20
23
16
16
55
3
8
14
25
36
31
33
100

hitrate: 0.517 hitrate: 0.391
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.62 0.00 1.45
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.57 1.75 0.76
Heidke skill score: 0.276 Heidke skill score: 0.086
true Heidke skill score: 0.276 true Heidke skill score: 0.096
Kuipers skill score: 0.276 Kuipers skill score: 0.086
true Kuipers skill score: 0.279 true Kuipers skill score: 0.097
threat score:
0.400 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.200 0.222 0.321
equitable threat score:
0.211 0.000 0.246
equitable threat score:
0.052 -0.028 0.165
probability of detection:
0.750 0.000 0.818
probability of detection:
0.261 0.500 0.429
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.538 0.000 0.438
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.538 0.714 0.438
samples: 29 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 45.31 %coverage: 100.00