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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200106-200108

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
2
2
8
4
2
2
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
23
19
55
4
2
2
8
17
25
21
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
25
25
100
50
25
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
21
37
30
87
6
3
3
13
27
40
33
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.397
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 4.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.20 0.38
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.095
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.013
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.095
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.012
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.404 0.074
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.033 -0.027
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.920 0.095
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.582 0.750
samples: 8 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 12.70 %coverage: 100.00