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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200106-200108

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 11.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
1
1
5
3
1
1
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
14
24
20
58
3
1
1
5
17
25
21
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
20
20
100
60
20
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
22
38
32
92
5
2
2
8
27
40
33
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.397
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 5.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.32 0.24
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: 0.095
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.008
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: 0.095
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.008
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.200
threat score:
0.000 0.407 0.040
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.027 -0.029
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.960 0.048
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.586 0.800
samples: 5 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 7.94 %coverage: 100.00