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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200110-200112

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
6
0
8
2
6
0
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
25
14
16
55
2
6
0
8
27
20
16
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
75
0
100
25
75
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
40
22
25
87
3
10
0
13
43
32
25
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.222
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.75 0.50
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.167
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.126
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.167
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.134
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.230 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.079 -0.092
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.700 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.745 1.000
samples: 8 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 12.70 %coverage: 100.00