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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200111-200201

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
2
3
8
3
2
3
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
29
18
8
55
3
2
3
8
32
20
11
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
38
25
38
100
38
25
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
46
29
13
87
5
3
5
13
51
32
17
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.75 0.73
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.049
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.056
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.375
threat score:
0.000 0.316 0.188
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.014 0.110
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.900 0.273
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.625
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.673 0.625
samples: 8 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 12.70 %coverage: 100.00