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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200202-200204

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
14
3
2
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
14
3
2
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
14
3
2
19
48
27
13
88
0
0
0
0
62
30
15
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
74
16
11
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
74
16
11
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
3
2
18
45
25
12
82
0
0
0
0
58
28
14
100

hitrate: 0.737 hitrate: 0.383
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.36 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.31 2.93 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.605 Heidke skill score: 0.075
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.075
Kuipers skill score: 0.605 Kuipers skill score: 0.075
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.088
threat score:
0.737 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.209 0.297 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.053 0.035 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.226 0.900 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.263 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.263 0.693 0.000
samples: 19 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 17.76 %coverage: 100.00