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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200207-200209

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
11
3
2
16
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
11
3
2
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
11
3
2
16
45
32
15
92
0
0
0
0
56
35
17
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
69
19
13
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
69
19
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
3
2
15
42
30
14
85
0
0
0
0
52
32
16
100

hitrate: 0.688 hitrate: 0.398
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.45 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.29 2.63 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.531 Heidke skill score: 0.097
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.070
Kuipers skill score: 0.531 Kuipers skill score: 0.097
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.075
threat score:
0.688 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.180 0.337 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.051 0.034 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.196 0.914 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.312 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.312 0.652 0.000
samples: 16 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 14.81 %coverage: 100.00