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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200210-200212

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
4
10
21
0
0
0
0
3
1
5
9
10
5
15
30

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
4
10
21
25
24
28
77
3
1
5
9
35
29
43
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
23
13
33
70
0
0
0
0
10
3
17
30
33
17
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
4
9
20
23
22
26
72
3
1
5
8
33
27
40
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.336
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.10 0.00 0.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.60 2.66 0.21
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.005
true Heidke skill score: 0.027 true Heidke skill score: 0.061
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.005
true Kuipers skill score: 0.027 true Kuipers skill score: 0.066
threat score:
0.292 0.000 0.263
threat score:
0.143 0.293 0.106
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.034
equitable threat score:
0.003 0.051 0.032
probability of detection:
0.700 0.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.200 0.828 0.116
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.000 0.444
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.688 0.444
samples: 30 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 28.04 %coverage: 100.00