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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200210-200212

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
2
1
10
0
0
0
0
8
2
9
19
15
4
10
29

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
2
1
10
20
25
33
78
8
2
9
19
35
29
43
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
24
7
3
34
0
0
0
0
28
7
31
66
52
14
34
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
2
1
9
19
23
31
73
7
2
8
18
33
27
40
100

hitrate: 0.552 hitrate: 0.383
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 0.00 1.90
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.29 2.69 0.44
Heidke skill score: 0.328 Heidke skill score: 0.075
true Heidke skill score: 0.248 true Heidke skill score: 0.119
Kuipers skill score: 0.328 Kuipers skill score: 0.075
true Kuipers skill score: 0.248 true Kuipers skill score: 0.127
threat score:
0.389 0.000 0.450
threat score:
0.184 0.305 0.170
equitable threat score:
0.142 0.000 0.182
equitable threat score:
0.107 0.063 0.030
probability of detection:
0.467 0.000 0.900
probability of detection:
0.200 0.862 0.209
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.300 0.000 0.526
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.300 0.679 0.526
samples: 29 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 27.10 %coverage: 100.00