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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200211-200301

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
11
8
1
20
0
0
0
0
9
12
4
25
20
20
5
45

contingency table
fcst
obs
11
8
1
20
41
16
5
62
9
12
4
25
61
36
10
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
24
18
2
44
0
0
0
0
20
27
9
56
44
44
11
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
7
1
19
38
15
5
58
8
11
4
23
57
34
9
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.290
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 5.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 1.72 2.50
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.065
true Heidke skill score: 0.100 true Heidke skill score: -0.050
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.065
true Kuipers skill score: 0.125 true Kuipers skill score: -0.061
threat score:
0.379 0.000 0.154
threat score:
0.157 0.195 0.129
equitable threat score:
0.105 0.000 0.053
equitable threat score:
-0.007 -0.079 0.058
probability of detection:
0.550 0.000 0.800
probability of detection:
0.180 0.444 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.450 0.000 0.840
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.450 0.742 0.840
samples: 45 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 42.06 %coverage: 100.00