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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200211-200301

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
1
7
0
0
0
0
11
9
3
23
15
11
4
30

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
1
7
46
25
6
77
11
9
3
23
61
36
10
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
7
3
23
0
0
0
0
37
30
10
77
50
37
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
1
7
43
23
6
72
10
8
3
21
57
34
9
100

hitrate: 0.233 hitrate: 0.299
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.47 0.00 5.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 2.14 2.30
Heidke skill score: -0.150 Heidke skill score: -0.051
true Heidke skill score: 0.018 true Heidke skill score: -0.001
Kuipers skill score: -0.150 Kuipers skill score: -0.051
true Kuipers skill score: 0.024 true Kuipers skill score: -0.001
threat score:
0.222 0.000 0.125
threat score:
0.062 0.284 0.100
equitable threat score:
0.034 0.000 -0.003
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.015 0.031
probability of detection:
0.267 0.000 0.750
probability of detection:
0.066 0.694 0.300
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.429 0.000 0.870
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.429 0.675 0.870
samples: 30 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 28.04 %coverage: 100.00