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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200212-200302

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
3
0
8
0
0
0
0
8
10
8
26
13
13
8
34

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
3
0
8
33
22
16
71
8
10
8
26
46
35
24
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
9
0
24
0
0
0
0
24
29
24
76
38
38
24
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
3
0
8
31
21
15
68
8
10
8
25
44
33
23
100

hitrate: 0.382 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.62 0.00 3.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.17 2.03 1.08
Heidke skill score: 0.074 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: 0.154 true Heidke skill score: 0.026
Kuipers skill score: 0.074 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: 0.172 true Kuipers skill score: 0.028
threat score:
0.312 0.000 0.308
threat score:
0.102 0.262 0.190
equitable threat score:
0.150 0.000 0.095
equitable threat score:
0.033 -0.028 0.057
probability of detection:
0.385 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.109 0.629 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.375 0.000 0.692
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.375 0.690 0.692
samples: 34 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 32.38 %coverage: 100.00