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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200301-200303

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
4
4
20
0
0
0
0
8
11
3
22
20
15
7
42

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
4
4
20
38
20
7
65
8
11
3
22
58
35
14
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
29
10
10
48
0
0
0
0
19
26
7
52
48
36
17
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
4
4
19
36
19
7
61
7
10
3
21
54
33
13
100

hitrate: 0.357 hitrate: 0.327
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 3.14
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.34 1.86 1.57
Heidke skill score: 0.036 Heidke skill score: -0.009
true Heidke skill score: 0.063 true Heidke skill score: 0.000
Kuipers skill score: 0.036 Kuipers skill score: -0.009
true Kuipers skill score: 0.070 true Kuipers skill score: 0.000
threat score:
0.429 0.000 0.115
threat score:
0.182 0.250 0.091
equitable threat score:
0.134 0.000 -0.030
equitable threat score:
0.021 -0.021 0.004
probability of detection:
0.600 0.000 0.429
probability of detection:
0.207 0.571 0.214
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.000 0.864
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.692 0.864
samples: 42 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 39.25 %coverage: 100.00