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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200301-200303

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
2
1
13
0
0
0
0
9
11
4
24
19
13
5
37

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
2
1
13
39
22
9
70
9
11
4
24
58
35
14
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
27
5
3
35
0
0
0
0
24
30
11
65
51
35
14
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
2
1
12
36
21
8
65
8
10
4
22
54
33
13
100

hitrate: 0.378 hitrate: 0.336
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.68 0.00 4.80
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.22 2.00 1.71
Heidke skill score: 0.068 Heidke skill score: 0.005
true Heidke skill score: 0.151 true Heidke skill score: 0.039
Kuipers skill score: 0.068 Kuipers skill score: 0.005
true Kuipers skill score: 0.186 true Kuipers skill score: 0.047
threat score:
0.455 0.000 0.160
threat score:
0.164 0.265 0.118
equitable threat score:
0.217 0.000 0.035
equitable threat score:
0.055 -0.015 0.028
probability of detection:
0.526 0.000 0.800
probability of detection:
0.172 0.629 0.286
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.231 0.000 0.833
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.231 0.686 0.833
samples: 37 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 34.58 %coverage: 100.00