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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199505-199507

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
2
3
6
7
12
32
51
8
14
35
57

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
29
11
16
56
7
12
32
51
36
23
48
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
4
5
11
12
21
56
89
14
25
61
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
27
10
15
52
7
11
30
48
34
21
45
100

hitrate: 0.596 hitrate: 0.402
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.43 1.46
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.43 1.06
Heidke skill score: 0.395 Heidke skill score: 0.103
true Heidke skill score: 0.050 true Heidke skill score: 0.112
Kuipers skill score: 0.395 Kuipers skill score: 0.103
true Kuipers skill score: 0.039 true Kuipers skill score: 0.118
threat score:
0.000 0.111 0.593
threat score:
0.000 0.162 0.478
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.032 0.030
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.019 0.207
probability of detection:
0.000 0.143 0.914
probability of detection:
0.000 0.478 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.667 0.373
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.804 0.373
samples: 57 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 53.27 %coverage: 100.00